Summary of contents: Harry Dent confuses "experts" for 20 years by largely predicting economic and financial trends and markets based on demographics and economic cycles.
This is the fifth book in his series on predicting economic trends. If Harry Dent is correct again, everyone should read this book! Dent's paper is relatively simple: he believes that demographic trends have driven predictable economic cycles for centuries that have driven economic development, regardless of other circumstances.
This fifth book depicts the huge "baby boomer" generation - the 92 million Americans born between 1946 and 1964 have had the greatest impact on our economy and society over the past half century. He explained how this huge demographic change in demand for goods and services has changed since they experienced different stages of school construction explosions in the 1960s, educating them through a strong economy in the 1990s and early 2000s. They are at the peak of their consumption period.
Due to the aging of the population and the reduced demand for goods and services, the current major crash occurred before the 2008-2018 recession or longer. Combined with wrong government and financial policies, this cycle created a huge "bubble" for real estate and credit in the first decade of the 21st century. The period from 2001 to 2007 was seen as a good time for easy credit and easy access to home ownership.
All bubbles in the economy are self-correcting. Dent described how this credit and real estate bubble adjustment and the steady decline in the largest group of Americans have created the worst financial depression since the 1930s. He over-extends this credit to the government and the private sector and how it can't be quickly repaired. This inevitably leads to the failure of financial markets and major price deflation in the next decade. Dent did not confine himself to the United States. He explained that similar bubbles and demographic trends over the past 20 years have led to a depression in Japan and will lead to similar problems in Europe and China.
Dent is based on an 80-year boom and bust cycle, and his research shows that he has repeated it many times over the past few hundred years. Eighty years after the Great Depression, we are again in the "winter" of this cycle, which will last for ten to fifteen years, and the new spring will lead to a slow recovery in the 1920s.
It is difficult to ignore Dent's theory. In the late 1980s, when most economists and authorities favored Japan, he predicted that the Japanese economy would die. Also in the 1990s, when many predicted the difficult times of the US economy, Dent looked forward to the prosperity of the 1990s and early 2000s. The book tracks the government's failure to correct this cycle because it simply cannot do this. It examines huge amounts of private and government debt and must repay or write down to restore the economy. So far, his macro predictions have always existed, so it is stupid to ignore what he is saying now. If he is wrong, this will be his first prediction in 30 years. If he is right, we will face a difficult period.
At the end of the book, Dent advises on how to use this information to protect assets and invest wisely in this "new" world. He teaches how to forget what we have learned in the past half century and learn how to adapt to the new economy.
Make sure Dent has his critics. A quick Google's name and books show some highly critical articles. They think that Dent is too loaded, his analysis is technically impressive, and other factors affect the economy, beyond his population projections. Some people provide complex Elliott wave analysis to show that Dent is wrong.
At the same time, he has some impressive supporters. David Bach, John Thomas, Kim and Charles Gisler, and a long list of other people support his book. I can't say for sure whether Dent is right or criticized - but if he is right, he will consider it. Similarly, although some of his predictions may not always be perfectly completed, one cannot ignore or ignore the general accuracy of his predictions to date.
Practicality: It must be pointed out that any prediction of future economic trends and behaviors is inherently full of risks. However, if Dent's predictions in this book are as accurate as his past analysis, this is very useful for anyone who saves for retirement, investment, business, or career choice.
Readability / Writing Quality: Dent writes very clearly. This book is full of quite complex economic and demographic analyses. This book is not an easy-to-read book, but it is well worth understanding.
Author's Note: Harry Dent is the author and head of the HS Dent Financial Advisory Network. He published a regular financial newsletter. He is the author of The Great Boom Ahead, The Roaring 2000s Investor, Next Great Bubble Boom and The Great Depression Ahead.
Three good ideas you can use:
1. The economy is mainly driven by population trends, which in turn drive the economic cycle. External activities, including war, natural disasters and government actions, have little impact on these trends. Understanding these cycles and trends is critical to planning for the future and protecting investments.
2. In the second half of the first decade of this century, we entered a winter phase of a very large population and economic cycle for 80 years. Everything the government does will not change this. This winter cycle will lead to large-scale debt restructuring, market adjustments and deflation. From 2008 to 2018 it looks a lot like 1930-1940.
3. Understanding this huge trend and its inevitable consequences is critical to investing wisely in the next decade to protect liquid assets and develop the winter economy.
Publication information: Harry S. Dent, Jr. The huge conflict with Rodney Johnson Copyright 2011 by HS Dent Press Free Press, a division of Simon and Schuster
Orignal From: Harry S Dent, Jr's huge conflict with Rodney Johnson - Book Review
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